Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Europe Plot/Drone Strikes Connection

More on the connection between the recent spate of drone strikes in North Waziristan and the plot to bomb public targets in Europe. Just a few months ago, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) seemed to be a fringe al Qaeda group. Conventional wisdom was that IMU was not welcome in most Taliban-held areas of Pakistan, due to their "extreme" global jihad views. The fact that they now appear relatively welcome in North Waziristan could mean a few things:

1) The IMU is closely allied with al Qaeda, and
2) al Qaeda has stepped up its influence with the Taliban (eg, Haqqani Network), and
3) The Taliban has embraced the global jihad view

OR

1 & 2 above, plus
4) The Taliban does not support IMU-like elements, but al Qaeda's growing power has suppressed the Taliban, and
5) al Qaeda's global influence is NOT as weak as the Obama administration claims

Either scenario is NOT good.


From the Longwar Journal (September 30, 2010):

Eight Germans and two Britons were killed in the same airstrike that killed an Islamic Jihad Group commander who trained Europeans to carry out attacks in England, France, and Germany.

The eight Germans and two Britons, who were involved in the recently exposed plot to conduct Mumbai-like attacks in Europe, are said to have been killed in one of the two Sept. 8 airstrikes in the Datta Khel area in North Waziristan, a known safe haven and command and control center for al Qaeda and allied terror groups.

The 10 Europeans are thought to have been killed in the same strike that killed Qureshi, a commander in the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG), a splinter faction of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Qureshi is believed to have been helping to train and facilitate the European plot, which is said to involve Mumbai-like terror assaults of armed suicide bombers in major European cities, a US intelligence official told The Long War Journal.

Qureshi was described by AKI as a commander who "used to receive foreigners especially the Germans in North Waziristan and then train them and resend them to their country of origins."

The Islamic Jihad Group is based out of the Mir Ali region and maintains close ties with al Qaeda leader Abu Kasha al Iraqi, and with North Waziristan Taliban commander Hafiz Gul Bahadar, who controls the Datta Khel region. The IJG is known to operate a 'German Taliban village' in Waziristan. The IJG is a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization. Both the IJG and IMU are al Qaeda affiliates that operate in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.

A Pakistani intelligence official said that the 10 Europeans killed in the Sept. 8 strikes were communicating with their support cells in Germany and London, and have been tracked for months.

"They have been making calls to Germany and London," the official told The Associated Press. "They have been talking about and looking for facilitators and logistics they need there to carry out terror strikes."

One of the Britons was identified as Abdul Jabbar, who originated from the district of Jhelum in Pakistan's Punjab province. Multiple Pakistani terror groups, including Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Laskar-e-Jhangvi, are active in Punjab. These groups receive the support of Pakistan's military and intelligence establishments.

Rashid Rauf, the elusive Jaish-e-Mohammed and al Qaeda operative, may be involved in the plot in Britain, a senior US intelligence official told The Long War Journal. Rauf and senior al Qaeda leader Matiur Rehman, who is said to hold the "rolodex" of jihadists who have passed through terror camps in Pakistan and Afghanistan, were the architects of the 2006 London airline plot. Rauf escaped Pakistani custody under very suspicious circumstances and was thought to have been killed in a Predator strike in 2008, but his death was never confirmed. US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal that they believe Rauf is alive, and Rauf's family has denied he is dead.

Another link to the Uzbek terror groups' involvement in the European terror plot is the arrest of Ahmed Sidiqui, a German from Hamburg. Sidiqui, a member of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, was captured in the Afghan north in July and has since provided information on the terror plot. Sidiqui also said that the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network, which is based in North Waziristan and operates in eastern and northern Afghanistan, was involved in the European terror plot.

Sidiqui had attended the Taiba mosque in Hamburg, which was home to several of the 9/11 plotters under its previous name -- Al Quds. German authorities closed the Taiba mosque on Aug. 12.

Coalition Special Operations Forces dramatically stepped up operations against the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan immediately after Sidiqui's capture in July. Multiple IMU commanders have been killed or captured in the northern Afghan provinces of Kunduz, Baghlan, and Takhar since July. Many of these commanders had integrated their operations with the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, and some held senior positions in the Taliban’s shadow government.


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The White Man's al Qaeda???

So German Caucasians are the latest members of al Qaeda's quest for global jihad. After uncovering the link between 9/11 and Hamburg, Germany, I guess I'm not too surprised.

From the Telegraph (September 25, 2010):

The village, in Taliban-controlled Waziristan, is run by the notorious al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which plots raids on Nato forces in Afghanistan.

A recruitment video presents life in the village as a desirable lifestyle choice with schools, hospitals, pharmacies and day care centres, all at a safe distance from the front.

In the video, the presenter, "Abu Adam", the public face of the group in Germany, points his finger and asks: "Doesn't it appeal to you? We warmly invite you to join us!"

According to German foreign ministry officials a growing number of German families, many of North African descent, have taken up the offer and travelled to Waziristan where supporters say converts make up some of the insurgents' most dedicated fighters.

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which has a foothold in several German cities, has capitalised on growing concern over the rising profile of German forces in Afghanistan. Their role has become increasingly controversial in Germany in recent weeks after dozens of civilians were killed in an air strike ordered by German officers.

Last night a foreign ministry spokesman told The Daily Telegraph they were now negotiating with Pakistani authorities for the release of six Germans, including "Adrian M", a white Muslim convert, his Eritrean wife and their four year old daughter, who were arrested as they were making their way to the "German village". They are particularly concerned about the welfare of the child.

They are being held in custody in Peshawar after their arrest in May shortly when they crossed the border from Iran. They are understood to have left Germany in March this year.

The spokesman said negotiations were "under way" with Pakistani authorities "concerning a group of German citizens" and that it had been aware that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan had been recruiting in Germany "since the beginning of the year".

Their recruitment drive has been led by "Abu Adam", a 24-year-old German believed to be of Turkish or North African descent who was raised with fellow Jihadi, Abu Ibrahim, in the smart Bonn suburb of Kessenich.

Adam, whose real name is Mounir Chouka, received weapons training from the German army as part of his national service, and later spent three years training at the Federal Office of Statistics where colleagues described him as a "nice boy".

He left in 2007, telling colleagues he was joining a trading firm in Saudi Arabia, but is believed to have joined a terrorist training camp in Yemen.

In another recruitment video released earlier this year he urged supporters to: "Die the death of honour."

Khalid Khawaja, a former Pakistan intelligence officer, who describes himself as a friend of Osama bin Laden, said he was aware of a German contingent and that there were a number of Swedish converts too who had arrived in Pakistan "for Jihad".

"The Europeans are there [in Waziristan]. The most dedicated people there are from Europe. They will do anything for Islam. They are not there because their fathers are Muslim, but by choice," he said.


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Surge in Drone Attacks Linked to Europe Plot

With the HUGE surge in drone strikes in North Waziristan in September, something had to be going on. It looks like the uptick in strikes was a reaction to intelligence learning of the plot to attack Europe and to disrupt it.

From the Longwar Journal (September 29, 2010):

Within the past 24 hours, the existence of an ongoing multi-pronged international terror plot in Europe modeled after the 2008 Mumbai attacks has been exposed. The plan is said to involve simultaneous attacks, consisting of commando-style raids and hostage-taking, on major targets in England, France, and Germany.

The US Predator campaign in Pakistan has been ramped up to counter this threat, and several terrorist leaders associated with the plot are thought to have been killed in these strikes over the past month. Also, US special operations forces have targeted al Qaeda-linked terror groups in northern Afghanistan who have been linked to the plot.

The revelation of this latest terror plot shakes an already edgy Europe, which has recently seen the Eiffel Tower evacuated twice in the past two weeks due to anonymous bomb threats, the arrest in Norway of several operatives planning another attack on the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, and specific threats to the French public transportation systems. At present, the terror alert level in France is high, as it is in England.

Western security officials may have made several arrests in an attempt to disrupt the plot, which apparently was not yet in the ‘imminent’ stage. These arrests follow a series of terror-related incidents in recent weeks linking individuals in Europe with al Qaeda and some of its affiliates.

The attack planning has been under the scrutiny of Western intelligence agencies for some time, and the recent flurry of drone strikes managed to interrupt the planning for the attack, according to the BBC. The dramatic increase in strikes has resulted from briefings with the Obama administration about the terror plot. In addition, the BBC observes, Western intelligence agencies have been somewhat dismayed by the leaks, as they have compromised an ongoing investigation.

According to Sky News, the plan had been hatched by Pakistan-based militants and was “in an ‘advanced but not imminent stage’” and its planners “had been tracked by spy agencies ‘for some time’.” The report in The Telegraph states that the plan “was foiled after Western intelligence agencies, including MI6 and GCHQ, uncovered the plans by senior al Qaeda operatives in the lawless tribal areas.”

The Telegraph goes on to note that a German resident who was detained by the US military in Afghanistan in July has revealed considerable information related to attacks being planned on German and other European targets. He was “identified in Germany as ‘Ahmad S’, aged 36, [and] was said to be a member of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which is closely associated with al-Qaeda.” The New York Times notes that he has been identified in German media reports as Ahmed Sidiqui, of Hamburg. According to the Times, Sidiqi told US interrogators that some of the terrorist operatives may already be in Europe, and that the Haqqani Network in Pakistan is involved in the plot or plots.

Dramatic increase in drone strikes in September may be linked to European terror plans

Coalition Special Operations Forces have dramatically stepped up operations against the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan immediately after Sidiqui's capture in July. Multiple IMU commanders have been killed or captured in the northern Afghan provinces of Kunduz, Baghlan, and Takhar since July. Many of these commanders had integrated their operations with the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, and some held senior positions in the Taliban’s shadow government.

In conjunction with the operations against the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in the Afghan north, the US ramped up its Predator campaign in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The unprecedented rain of Predator strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas this month has killed more than 100 militants, from several terror affiliates, including al Qaeda, the Islamic Jihad Group, and the Haqqani Network. Three top al Qaeda and Islamic Jihad Group commanders who may be linked to the plot have been reported killed in the past month.

The most significant al Qaeda leader reported to have been killed is Sheik Abu el Fatah al Masri, al Qaeda’s chief of operations for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Fateh is thought to have been killed in a drone strike on Sept. 25 in North Waziristan. Since the news of the European terror plot surfaced, reports have suggested that Fateh’s death has severely disrupted the plot. Other reports also suggest, however, that the plot itself, though unraveling, may not yet be completely interrupted.

Another significant terror leader linked to the plot who is thought to have been killed is Qureshi, an Uzbek commander from the al Qaeda-linked Islamic Jihad Group, a US intelligence official told The Long War Journal. Qureshi was targeted in a drone strike in North Waziristan on Sept. 8. According to AKI, Qureshi "used to receive foreigners especially the Germans in North Waziristan and then train them and resend them to their country of origins." The Islamic Jihad Group is a splinter group of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and has numerous German and Turkish members.

Also thought killed in the strike that killed Qureshi are two Britons and eight Germans, The Telegraph reported. One of the Britons, who was originally from Pakistan, was identified as Abdul Jabbar of the district of Jhelum in Punjab province.

Also, unconfirmed reports indicate that Bekkay Harrach, a German national who is based along the Afghan-Pakistani border, may have been killed in the Aug. 23 Predator strike in Danda Darpa Khel, the hub for the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network in North Waziristan. Harrach is a German national who is a senior member of al Qaeda's external operations branch.

Uncertainties remain as to scope of plot and terror groups' involvement

The latest reports on the plot appear to downplay its significance as an imminent threat, and to stress the uncertainties at the moment. The Associated Press reports that "U.S. intelligence had heard of the European plot about a month ago and was monitoring the people involved" and states that the US had increased the number of drone strikes in Pakistan in an effort to disrupt the plot. Reflecting the present lack of any clear answers on the issue, however, the AP report goes on to quote an anonymous British official who cautioned that although the drone strikes were believed to have interrupted the planning for the European attacks, "the operation was still considered active."

Looking at the scope of the interrupted plot to attack several European countries simultaneously, it is apparent that for a plan of this size to succeed, operatives with diverse backgrounds would be most useful, in order for them to blend in effectively with the local populations. Al Qaeda planners might draw from the group’s various affiliates for this sort of extensive operation: they would likely use Pakistanis for the planned attacks in London, North Africans from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb for the attacks in France, and Germans from the IMU and IJG for the German attacks, for example.

Arrests have been recently made in Europe that may have some connection with this still-unraveling plot.

Yesterday, a US citizen of Algerian origins was arrested in Spain; he is reported to have links with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The arrest was made for his allegedly sending large amounts of money to al Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb, al Qaeda’s affiliate in North Africa. AQIM has an extensive network in France and southern Europe.

In July, three men were arrested in Norway for plotting terror attacks in Europe, and more recently, the Norwegian authorities have revealed that one of the three Norwegian suspects, an Iraqi Kurd named Shawan Sadek Saeed Bujak Bujak, has confessed to plotting to attack the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, which had published cartoons of the prophet Mohammed several years ago. The other two suspects are an Uzbek national named David Jakobsen, and a Norwegian citizen of Uighur origins named Mikael Davud, who arrived in Norway in 1999 and apparently was the main planner for the attack. MSNBC notes that Davud had gone to Waziristan at approximately the same time as New York subway plotter Najibullah Zazi, though, according to US officials, they did not meet or train together there.

In Germany, officials remain concerned about possible future terror attacks, in light of information provided by a Sidiqui, the German national of Afghan descent who was arrested by US forces in Afghanistan in July and has been held in Baghram since that time. According to the head of the German federal police, there is “concrete evidence that 70 Islamists from Germany had undergone paramilitary training in terror camps.“ The German police estimate that over 400 Islamists are currently in Germany, of which perhaps 131 could be potential "offenders.”

As the investigation in this unraveling terror plot continues, it has become apparent that much of the planning seems to have been on the radar of the various Western intelligence agencies for weeks and even months. The recent leaks may have forced Western intelligence services and law enforcement agencies to act more quickly than they might otherwise have done to arrest planners and operatives, thus potentially leaving other suspects at large, and other terror plans possibly intact.


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Cross Border Strikes Kill More Than 100

Recently, ISAF Apache helicopters took it to militants belonging to the Haqqani Network. Killing more than 100. Across the border. Several times. In Pakistan.

Although this sounds like a case of “hot pursuit”, this is a BIG deal. Manned incursions into Pakistan are rare (although reliable sources indicate that Special Operation troops routinely operate in Pakistan). Predictably, the Paks were rather upset, publicly and politically.

From the Longwar Journal (September 27, 2010):

The International Security Assistance Force confirmed that its helicopters clashed with the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network near the Pakistani border, but would not confirm the aircraft crossed into Pakistan to conduct attacks.

Ten Haqqani Network fighters fighters were killed during a clash this morning along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, a US military official told The Long War Journal, but current reports indicate the helicopters did cross into Pakistan to engage Taliban fighters. The military official said that ISAF is still gathering information on the clash.

The fighting took place near Combat Outpost Narizah, an Afghan base just eight miles from the Pakistani border in Khost province, the official said. Khost is a stronghold of the Haqqani Network, an Afghan Taliban subgroup based in North Waziristan, Pakistan.

The statement played down reports from earlier today that indicated US helicopters killed five insurgents as they fled into Pakistan's tribal agency of Kurram, which borders Khost.

In another report, a Pakistani security official claimed that US helicopters crossed the border and struck a local checkpoint manned by members of "noble tribal families."

Combat Outpost Narizah was the scene of two major clashes over the weekend that resulted in US helicopters pursuing Haqqani Network fighters into Pakistan's Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan. Initial reports indicated that more than 30 Haqqani Network fighters were killed in the two cross-border engagements, but later reports state than between 50 to 60 may have been killed.

ISAF has maintained that it legitimately attacked Taliban forces as part of an existing policy of hot pursuit of fighters.

US forces pursued the Taliban into Pakistan "after following the proper rules of engagement under inherent right of self defense," Master Sergeant Matthew Summers, an ISAF spokesman, told The Long War Journal on Sept. 26.

But a spokesman at Pakistan's Foreign Office rejected reports that such an agreement between ISAF and Pakistan exists, and said the incursions are a violation ISAF's mandate.

“These incidents are a clear violation and breach of the UN mandate under which ISAF operates,” spokesman Abdul Basit said in a statement released by the Foreign Office, according to AFP.

“There are no agreed 'hot pursuit' rules," Basit continued. "Any impression to the contrary is not factually correct. Such violations are unacceptable. In the absence of immediate corrective measures, Pakistan will be constrained to consider response options."

Background on agreement on cross-border activities between ISAF and Pakistan
Although the Pakistani Foreign Office denied the existence of any agreement that permits ISAF forces to enter Pakistan while in hot pursuit of Taliban fighters, the details of such an agreement have been known for years. In August 2007, The Associated Press released the text of the agreement.

The agreement between ISAF and Pakistan stipulated the following: US forces must be engaged with the Taliban or al Qaeda as they cross into Pakistan and US forces should not penetrate more than six miles into Pakistani territory. Also, US forces may enter Pakistan if they have identified the location of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahri, or Mullah Omar.

The US has pursued Taliban fighters across the border multiple times. Two of the most high-profile incidents occurred in 2008. The first took place in June 2008, when US troops pursued a Taliban force from Kunar into Pakistan's tribal agency of Mohmand, and killed 11 fighters. The Pakistani government claimed that the US killed Frontier Corps troops, but the US released video of the incident showing the Taliban being targeted as they fled from Kunar into Mohmand. Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Corps is known to support the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The second incident took place in Khyber in November 2008, when US forces launched rocket attacks and ground strikes into the Tirah Valley, a known haven for al Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Lashkar-e-Islam. Seven people were reported killed and three were wounded in the strikes.

The US also launches covert airstrikes using unmanned Predators and Reapers against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan's tribal areas. The Pakistani government officially protests the covert strikes but quietly approves. Three such strikes have been launched inside Pakistan over the past three days; all have taken place in North Waziristan.


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Number 3 al Qaeda Killed in Drone Strike!!!

Having the number 3 position in al Qaeda is a dangerous job. And so is living near Datta Khel.

From the Longwar Journal (September 28, 2010):

Unconfirmed reports from Pakistan indicate the US has killed al Qaeda's newly appointed leader of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Sheikh Fateh al Masri, the leader of Qaedat al Jihad fi Khorasan, or the base of the jihad in the Khorasan, was killed in a recent Predator strike, Pakistani intelligence officials told AFP.

US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal said they were aware of the reports and were investigating. One US official confirmed that Fateh was targeted in the spate of recent strikes but cautioned that given the total control that the Taliban and al Qaeda have in North Waziristan, it is difficult to be certain Fateh was killed.

Al Qaeda has not released a martyrdom statement announcing Fateh's death. Such statements are often released on jihadist Internet forums days or weeks after a leader is killed.

Fateh is thought to have been killed in the Sept. 25 strike in Datta Khel in North Waziristan, a known haven for al Qaeda's top leaders. In that attack, US Predators or Reapers fired three missiles at a vehicle, killing four "militants."

Datta Khel is administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, the Taliban commander for North Waziristan. Despite the fact that Bahadar and the Haqqani Network shelter al Qaeda and other South and Central Asian terror groups, the Pakistani government and military refuse to take action in North Waziristan. Bahadar and the Haqqanis are viewed as "good Taliban" as they do not attack the Pakistani state.

Fatah replaced Mustafa Abu Yazid, al Qaeda's former leader in Afghanistan, who was killed in the May 21 Predator airstrike in Datta Khel in North Waziristan. Yazid served as al Qaeda's chief financier and paymaster. Al Qaeda has not publicly named Yazid's replacement for its top financial official, nor is it likely to do so given the job's importance, intelligence officials said.

Fateh, like Yazid, is an Egyptian who is close to Ayman al Zawahiri. Egyptians hold a significant number of al Qaeda's top leadership positions.

The Khorasan is a region that encompasses large areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Iran. The Khorasan is considered by jihadists to be the place where they will inflict the first defeat against their enemies in the Muslim version of Armageddon. The final battle is to take place in the Levant - Israel, Syria, and Lebanon.

Mentions of the Khorasan have begun to increase in al Qaeda's propaganda since 2007. After al Qaeda's defeat in Iraq, the group began shifting its rhetoric from promoting Iraq as the central front in their jihad and has placed the focus on the Khorasan.


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Drone Strike in South Waziristan Kills 4

A drone strike kills four militants belonging to Mullah Nazir.

From Dawn.com (September 28, 2010):

PESHAWAR: A US drone strike killed four militants Tuesday and destroyed a rebel compound in Pakistan's lawless tribal badlands along the Afghan border, local security officials said.

Pakistani officials say unmanned US aircraft have significantly stepped up attacks on Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked operatives in the semi-autonomous region this month, recording at least 21 attacks in September.

Tuesday's strike took place in Zeba village close to the Afghan border and west of Wana, the main town in South Waziristan.

“A US drone fired two missiles which hit a militant compound, killing four militants,” a Pakistani security official told AFP on condition of anonymity. Another security official confirmed the attack and the death toll.


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3rd Drone Strike in Two Days Kills 4

From Dawn.com (September 27, 2010):

MIRAMSHAH: A US drone strike killed four militants Monday and destroyed a rebel compound in Pakistan's lawless tribal badlands along the Afghan border, local security officials said.

Pakistani officials say unmanned US aircraft have significantly stepped up attacks on Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked operatives in the semi-autonomous region this month, clocking up at least 19 attacks in 24 days.

Monday's strike took place in Khushali Toorikhel village southeast of Miramshah, the main town in North Waziristan, the tribal district that has been the focus of the covert drone campaign as a Taliban and Al-Qaeda stronghold.

“We can now confirm that four militants were killed when a US drone fired two missiles on a militant compound,” a senior Pakistani security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Another security official confirmed the attack and the death toll.

“We don't yet know the identities of those killed,” the official said.

Pakistani security officials also said US drones carried out missile strikes in North Waziristan on Saturday and Sunday, killing at least 11 militants.


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